Population forecasting Assignment

Population forecasting from census bureau in the United States, you may select any population forecasting on the site and download analyze and answer the questions below. The excel file used to answer questions must also be provided with computations. I have also attached samples for your reference.

Part 1:Simple Data from
1. The ms-excel must include:

A Title that describes the population that you plan to forecast (e.g., California Hispanic Population 2010 to 2020 –

2. The ms-excel file must show input data and the forecast results along with the computational statements that turned the data into a forecast and include information on the sources of the data.
3. How to obtain data (very easy) – sample instructions given
a. www.census.gov
b. select data tab
c. select data tools and apps
d. select American fact finder
e. click advanced search and then show me all
f. for topic or table name type in: QT-P1: Age Groups and Sex
g. for state, county enter in any county and then click go
h. click the first choice that says QT-P1 age groups and sex 2000 SF1 100% Data
i. download the whole table as an excel sheet
j. now go back and click on the 2010 table from the left side and download that table as well

Part 2: Written Report

The forecast report based on the above excel.

The written report (ms-word file) is typically 12 pages, including graphs and tables (which can be copied from your excel file that generated the forecast and pasted into the ms-word file containing the report) and references (references are not counted as pages). Clear (grammatically correct, well organized, and without spelling errors) report of your forecast that conforms to the MLA format style for citations and corresponding entries in the references, to include:

1. an abstract (single spaced,12 pt. font)

2. the main body of your report (double spaced, 12 pt. font) to include: a title, an introduction, to include a
description of the population you are forecasting, the horizon, the base period, and launch point

b. the results of your forecast

c. a discussion of the Methods used: cohort change ratios (&, if you used it, the shift-share method) you developed from your input data to generate your forecast, along with implicit assumptions underlying them and adjustments, if needed, to make your forecast reasonable.

d. a discussion of the strengths & weaknesses of the method(s) you used.
& weaknesses.

e. a discussion of the forecast along with corresponding graphs and tables showing your forecast

f. references and related documentation of your project, to full citations of your source data with reports

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